Microbial Risk Assessment Group

The aim of the Microbial Risk Assessment (MRA) group is to provide evidence-based risk assessment to help advise the Department of Health, Health Protection Agency and related sister agencies and departments on policy, contingency planning and public health countermeasures ahead of time in relation to new and (re-)emerging infectious disease threats, including those posed by bioterrorism.

The MRA group also provide specialist systems such as data analysis, visualisation and modelling to help with training exercises and real-time outbreak management and control.

The group comprises a multidisciplinary team that includes infectious disease biologists and epidemiologists, medical entomologists, mathematical modellers, geographic information system (GIS) and IT development specialists.

The core components of the team's work include:

• Worldwide Horizon Scanning to develop an understanding of global emerging infectious disease (EID) issues to enable an assessment of their likely threats to the UK , and to identify current knowledge and information gaps to help direct and inform qualitative and quantitative approaches to microbial risk assessments.

• To carry out qualitative and quantitative risk assessments on new, emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases threats to the UK ahead-of-time, through collaboration and consultation with both academic and cross- governmental groups.

• The development and application of a toolbox of established and bespoke mathematical models to assess and predict the potential public health impacts of newly emerging infectious diseases and the likely relative benefits of different mitigation strategies.

• Development of a Geographic information Systems (GIS) capability to support Microbial Risk Assessment and Emergency Response planning. This involves construction of seamless digital mapping datasets for the UK, incorporating detailed Ordnance Survey mapping, descriptions of topography, land cover, climate, vector and animal host distributions, 2001 census demographics and population distribution and movement. GIS analysis, visualisation and bespoke applications development help inform the team of risk factors related to potential disease outbreaks and impacts on public health.

• Specialist IT and database systems that underpin the work of the team, supported by a dedicated high performance, secure Local Area Network (LAN). Hardware and software systems running on the LAN have been designed to be robust, with comprehensive failsafe and backup capabilities. They include technologies such as: Oracle 9i database, Oracle 9i AS, JBoss, J2EE, Solaris and SuSE Linux.

 

Recent and current areas of interest

Work conducted by the Microbial Risk Assessment group, in conjunction with HPA colleagues, sister organisations and others, includes:

• Risk assessments on emerging infectious diseases

• Global disease outbreak monitoring and mapping

• Vector-borne and zoonotic infections
  Asian Tiger Mosquitoes
  Tick Recording Scheme 

• Person-to-person disease transmission modelling

• Atmospheric dispersion modelling

• GIS-based spatial/temporal ecological modelling

• Provision of Ordnance Survey digital mapping data to HPA Departments under the Pan Government Agreement (PGA)

• Demographics, including the 2001 Census and descriptions of population distribution and movement that help describe disease transmission through the population and provide population impact assessments

• Pan-European modelling of bioterrorist agents

• Development of bespoke modelling and mapping applications

• Contingency planning for pandemic influenza and smallpox

• The application of high-end computing to infectious disease modelling

 

For more information please contact

Dr Steve Leach
Microbial Risk Assessment
Health Protection Agency
Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response
Porton Down
Salisbury SP4 0JG

 

Tel: 44(0)1980 612100

Fax: 44(0)1980 612491

Email: MRA@hpa.org.uk

Last reviewed: 5 August 2008