The next pandemic

What is being done to prepare for a flu pandemic?

Will people entering the UK be screened at ports?

How will pandemic flu affect the UK?

It is unlikely that a pandemic flu will originate in the UK, however the UK will be at risk once a pandemic virus emerges. With the increase in global transport and communications, as well as urbanization and overcrowded conditions, epidemics caused by a new influenza virus are likely to quickly take hold around the world. It will be very difficult to prevent global spread, but by being prepared its impact can be significantly reduced.

We do not know with any certainty who will be most affected, how many people will become ill or how many people will die. What we do know is that the next pandemic is likely to be associated with a much higher degree of illness and many more deaths than seasonal flu and cause considerable social and economic disruption. Worldwide experts predict anything between two million and 50 million deaths. There may be in excess of 50,000 additional deaths in the UK.

What is being done to prepare for a flu pandemic?

The HPA has developed a Pandemic Influenza Contingency Plan that relates closely to the DH UK-wide Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan (external website). Both plans will be put into action in the event of a pandemic. Other bodies are developing specific plans based on these documents. The Plans includes initiatives to improve our preparedness now, before another pandemic occurs.

NHS staff will be trained to manage services during a pandemic and to cope with the demands that are likely to be placed on them. If pandemic flu reaches the UK, there will be announcements in the newspapers, on radio and on TV, giving advice on the best course of action to take.

The government is taking steps to be in the best possible position for a vaccine to be manufactured as rapidly as possible when a pandemic virus is identified. Manufacture is still likely to take several months and a vaccine will not be available at the start of a pandemic. The UK government is also building up stocks of antiviral drugs, which will be used in the most effective way to treat those most at risk of serious illness based on how the disease develops.

Will people entering the UK be screened at ports?

This is unlikely to be effective because of the highly infectious nature of the flu virus. Screening can only detect people who are showing symptoms. Pandemic flu victims may be infectious even before they exhibit symptoms yet would not be detected by port screening systems.

Last reviewed: 13 August 2008