Chemical Hazards and Poisons |
Published on: 3 February 2012 |
First UK climate change risk assessment published
An assessment of the likely principal challenges to the UK and its economy arising from climate change, and supporting documentation describing the evidence base under-pinning that assessment, have been published by the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs [1].
The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), produced by an independent consortium funded by Defra and the Devolved Administrations, comprises technical reports on 11 research areas – referred to as “sector reports” – covering: agriculture, agriculture; biodiversity and ecosystem services; built environment; business, industry and services; energy; forestry; floods and coastal erosion; health; marine and fisheries; transport; and water.
The Health Protection Agency has been extensively involved in the health sector report [2].
Methodology
A novel methodology was used in the CCRA whereby evidence was reviewed for over 700 potential risks of climate change in the UK, with detailed analysis being undertaken for around 100 of these risks across the 11 sectors, on the basis of their likelihood, the scale of their potential consequences and the urgency with which action may be needed to address them.
In the Health sector, the risks taken forward were: temperature mortality and morbidity (heat); temperature mortality and morbidity (cold); summer air pollution mortality and morbidity (ozone); extreme weather event mortality (flooding and storms); effects of floods and storms on mental health; sunlight/UV exposure; and extreme weather event injuries (flooding and storms).
Key findings
A 17-page CCRA summary document [3] describes the key messages arising from the CCRA as follows:- the global climate is changing and warming will continue over the next century;
- the UK is already vulnerable to extreme weather, including flooding and heatwaves;
- flood risk is projected to increase significantly across the UK;
- UK water resources are projected to come under increased pressure;
- potentially, there are health benefits as well as threats related to climate change, affecting the most vulnerable groups in society;
- sensitive ecosystems are likely to come under increasing pressure;
- potential climate risks in other parts of the world are thought to be much greater than those directly affecting the UK, but could have a significant indirect impact here;
- some changes projected for the UK as a result of climate change could provide opportunities for agriculture and other businesses, although not outweighing the threats;
- despite the uncertainties related to future climate change and its impacts, the evidence is now sufficient to identify a range of possible outcomes that can inform adaptation policies and planning; and [nevertheless]
- significant gaps in evidence still exist.
- the 11 sector reports that comprise the main CCRA report,
- the underpinning evidence report [4]; and
- the government’s response to the CCRA [5] explaining current and future policies already in place and giving details of a National Adaptation Programme [6] – a programme of actions, to be announced during the coming year, that the government will put in place to address the issues raised.
- 11 summaries of the sector reports, and
- three detailed reports covering the devolved administrations, and related summary reports for those.
The health sector report
The CCRA for the Health Sector [2], one of the 11 sector reports, reviews the evidence on the effects of climate change on public and environmental health, and on health services. The key findings for this sector are:- rising temperatures, mainly during the summer, may result in an increase in heat-related deaths and hospital admissions. This may particularly affect vulnerable groups such as the elderly;
- warmer winters may lead to a substantial fall in cold-related deaths. However, even if cold spells become less common, short periods of low temperatures might affect health adversely because people would be less used to cold weather;
- an increase in summer temperatures and heatwaves may lead to a rise in the number of deaths and hospital admissions resulting from respiratory conditions aggravated by ground-level ozone. However, climate change may also result in a fall in winter air pollution, reducing the number of deaths and associated illnesses that this causes;
- sea level rises and more intense rainfall may lead to an increase in the number of deaths related to floods and coastal wave activity. Moreover, evidence is emerging that flooding can have a substantial impact on mental health, causing anxiety and depression, which can be long-lasting in some cases;
- higher summer temperatures may encourage people to spend more time in the sun (eg to take outdoor exercise). This may lead to higher levels of vitamin D in the body, but may also increase exposure to ultra-violet (UV) radiation and so cause an increase in the incidence of skin cancer; and
- climate change adaptation in the health sector will depend upon the availability of resources, as there are other urgent priorities and demands on the sector's time and resources. To be effective, adaptation to climate change needs to be factored into: the design, construction and maintenance of healthcare infrastructure; the allocation of resources; procurement processes; and training programmes.
References
1. “UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA)”, Defra, 26 January 2012.
2. “Climate change risk assessment for the health sector”, Hames D and Vardoulakis S
3.
“Summary of key findings from the UK climate change risk assessment 2012”, Defra, 26 January 2012.
4. “The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report”, 26 January 2012.
5. “UK climate change risk assessment: government report”, Defra, 26 January 2012.
6. National Adaptation Programme launched, 26 January 2012.